Clemson vs NC State Odds, Picks, Predictions: How We're Betting Saturday's Unfold & Over/Below – The Motion Community
Clemson vs NC State Odds
By Dan Keegan
The marquee recreation of the week takes us to Clemson for a important matchup within the ACC Atlantic Division. All 4 of the ACC’s 4-0 groups reside within the Atlantic, however this recreation pits the preseason favorites, the 2 greatest defenses and a pair of star quarterbacks in opposition to one another.
NC State and Clemson each have unblemished data and quarterbacks with good counting stats however perhaps some disappointing underlying metrics that might want to enhance in the event that they hope to attain their preseason objectives.
Clemson returns house after a double-overtime win over Wake Forest — the sort of recreation Dabo Swinney needed to see DJ Uiagalelei function in and win.
DJ’s enchancment has been actual, however the protection has not been as dominant as final 12 months’s Brent Venables-led unit. The tradeoff might be worthwhile within the identify of balanced soccer, because the 2021 Iowa-esque efficiency was not sustainable for long-term success.
The Wolfpack escaped East Carolina of their season opener and have considerably anonymously dealt with their enterprise since.
The protection is superb, however the offense has taken a step again in some metrics like SP+ (53rd) or Beta_Rank (69th). Devin Leary is an skilled chief and has the complete buy-in of his coaches and teammates; will probably be essential for him to take the offense a step ahead on this matchup.
Climate is perhaps an element, because the remnants of Hurricane Ian transfer by the Jap Seaboard. If there are windy and wet situations, that might favor the defenses and decelerate these star quarterbacks.
This can be a titanic recreation for NC State. It would look to double-down on final season’s win over Clemson because it performs within the faculty’s first-ever matchup between two top-10 groups.
Clemson, in the meantime, is searching for revenge from final season’s upset — and to tie Florida State’s ACC file 36-game house profitable streak.
College data are on the road, and ACC Atlantic supremacy is up for grabs. This can be a colossal matchup for the primary weekend of October; Saturday’s contest will decide these two groups’ 2022 fates, these veteran quarterbacks’ legacies, and can form the ACC race.
We polled 13 of our school soccer consultants to see how they’d play the most important recreation of Week 5. Let’s see if there’s a consensus and the way we will discover worth on Saturday night time.
Clemson vs NC State Level Unfold
Devin Leary, now could be your time to show you’re an NFL-caliber quarterback.
There’s been a slight drop-off in statistics from final season for Leary, similar to his yards-per-game common dropping by 64 yards earlier than convention play has even began. However NC State’s first-ever top-10 matchup in opposition to Clemson is the proper alternative to shine.
Since America possible final noticed Clemson’s protection on the nationwide stage strangling Georgia Tech in Week 1, the Tigers’ secondary has been a little bit of a legal responsibility. Within the final three video games (which incorporates Furman), Clemson has allowed permitting 301 yards passing per recreation. The Tigers are solely middle-of-the-pack in Passing Success on protection, rating 53rd.
A key space the place Clemson’s protection sometimes dominates is on the line of scrimmage. The Tigers rank sixth and ninth in Havoc and move rush, respectively, they usually sacked Sam Hartman 3 times final week.
NC State’s offensive line, nonetheless, occurs to be considered one of its strengths. Leary has been sacked simply 4 occasions this 12 months, and the Wolfpack rank sixth in move blocking.
This recreation will possible come right down to how nicely DJ Uiagalelei performs. The Clemson quarterback has been inconsistent all through his profession, however he’s already handed for over 1,000 yards and 10 scores with only one decide by 4 video games. His weight reduction earlier than the season has additionally made him a extra harmful runner.
The Wolfpack protection has given up simply 179.8 passing yards per recreation, whereas choosing off an ACC-best seven passes. It additionally held an excellent Texas Tech offense to solely 14 factors and its lowest yardage output of the season by 126 yards.
Demise Valley is a tricky place to play, however climate shouldn’t be a problem. Uiagalelei had considered one of his greatest profession video games final week in opposition to Wake Forest, however he wants to indicate extra earlier than he will be totally trusted.
I count on Clemson to get out to an early lead and let operating again Will Shipley shoulder the offensive load earlier than Leary hits an enormous move play within the remaining minutes for a backdoor cowl.
Clemson vs NC State Over/Below
Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is off to a incredible begin this season after what might be categorized as a problematic season at greatest in 2021. In simply 4 video games this 12 months, Uiagalelei has already surpassed his landing whole from final season, tossing 10 touchdowns to only 9 in 13 video games final season.
Even Uiagalelei’s harshest critics, myself included, had been left consuming crow after final week’s excellent double-overtime win over Wake Forest.
There are a number of theories behind the season-over-season enchancment, and you may level to an improved line, a greater broad receiver corps and Uiagalelei’s slimmed-down physique.
The actual fact of the matter is that the field scores by no means lie. This season, they inform a story of a younger man who’s taking part in wonderful soccer, finishing 64.3% of his passes for a Tiger workforce that ranks Thirteenth nationally in scoring offense with a median of 43.8 factors per recreation.
A matured Uiagalelei and the Tiger offense will likely be prepared for an NC State protection that ranks tied for eighth within the nation in scoring protection, giving up solely 11.8 factors per recreation.
The Wolfpack are a venerable squad, but when we have a look underneath the hood of the protection, issues is perhaps a contact overstated.
In two of its 4 video games, NC State was lucky sufficient to face FCS Charleston Southern (4-6 in 2021) and FBS laggard UConn (1-11 in 2021) and allowed a mixed 13 factors within the two contests.
With Uiagalelei coming off of final week’s five-touchdown efficiency during which he obtained sharper as the sport progressed, this appears to be the hardest spot of the season for the Wolfpack.
On the time of publishing, the Nationwide Climate Service (NWS) radar is displaying Hurricane Ian — now a Class 1 hurricane — making its method up the Atlantic coast. As initially predicted, Hurricane Ian was speculated to take a extra northward route from Cuba and certain contributed to downward motion within the whole as heavy residual rain and winds had been anticipated in Clemson.
At kickoff, the NWS is now predicting wonderful soccer climate with a ten% probability of precipitation and winds of lower than 5 miles per hour after Ian’s quicker-than-expected eastward flip.
Search for Uiagalelei to proceed his redemption tour on Saturday night time in opposition to an NC State protection that hasn’t been totally battle-tested. On the opposite aspect of the ball, Clemson doesn’t look to be as stout as years’ previous with out former defensive coordinator Brent Venables.
Clemson missed the majority of the precipitation that Hurricane Ian was speculated to deliver, so now the impetus will likely be on Uiagalelei to make it rain.
By CJ Vogel
Like most who’ve watched Clemson, I don’t maintain a number of confidence within the Tigers’ capacity to maneuver the ball and rating factors successfully. Nevertheless, there’s motive to consider factors will come this Saturday in Demise Valley.
Clemson at present is tied for the highest spot within the nation in crimson zone effectivity. With 24 journeys into the crimson zone this season, the Tigers have scored on each journey, with 75% of their red-zone visits leading to six factors being placed on the board.
Say what you’ll about DJ Uiagalelei, however the truth of the matter is when it’s time to get into the tip zone, the Clemson offense finds a method.
Whereas each defenses are producing the pregame buzz, and deservedly so, it’s price noting that the 2 groups have mixed for simply 10 sacks allowed by eight video games this season. Ought to safety present up once more this weekend, the chance for each groups to attain factors will likely be there, and in a rivalry recreation like this, discipline objectives should not going to be the trail to victory.
Each offenses rank inside the highest 30 in third-down effectivity with Clemson up within the prime 10. Sustaining drives will likely be a key and one thing I consider will likely be attainable for each groups.
Clemson vs NC State 1H, Props & Unique Picks
NC State was considered one of my sleeper picks going into the season, because it introduced again an unimaginable TARP score with expertise on each side of the ball. The unhappy actuality is that it hasn’t lived as much as the hype.
The offense has been particularly lackluster for a workforce anticipated to be a risk for the ACC crown. Counting on gradual chunks at a time with little to no explosiveness, will probably be hard-pressed to search out success in opposition to Clemson’s protection all through the course of a full recreation.
Talking of the Clemson protection, this isn’t the identical unit that we’ve been accustomed to over time. Normally one of the vital ferocious defenses in soccer, this squad has been uncovered by the air on the again finish.
Fortunately for the Tigers, this can be a run-heavy script.
NC State already has offensive struggles, and potential results from Hurricane Ian forcing it into the run recreation do it no favors. The Wolfpack personal below-average speeding metrics in PPA and explosiveness at one of many decrease rush charges within the nation.
With NC State’s offense turning into one-dimensional and Clemson nonetheless needing to show itself as a dependable offensive risk, I’m placing my cash on this being a large number of a primary half.
Take the first-half underneath at 21 or higher.
I all the time lick my chops after I see a plus-money guess with good worth. This one jumped proper out at me as I scrolled by the assorted books searching for one other method to play my over angle that I really feel is severely depressed for this prime-time recreation.
I’m projecting the full for this recreation at 53.65 factors and have Clemson as 4.57-point favorites at house in dying valley. There are three explanation why I really feel this guess has a strong probability of cashing.
First, fallout from Hurricane Ian was initially modeled to make its method additional north than the trail it finally took. I consider the early climate predictions anchored this line too low. We should always see the road transfer greater now that the hurricane is firmly on the Atlantic Coast and the climate forecast is looking for clear skies and no wind, sparing Clemson the brunt of the storm.
Secondly, Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has been on fireplace up to now this season. In a dramatic turnaround from final 12 months, Uiagalelei is once more one of many hottest quarterback names within the nation, finishing 64.3% of his passes and averaging 258.3 yards per recreation.
The Tigers enter because the Thirteenth-ranked scoring offense within the nation, placing up a powerful 43.8 factors per recreation. This can be a marked enchancment from final 12 months’s offense that completed 2021 ranked 82nd within the nation in scoring offense, averaging 26.3 factors per recreation.
Lastly, the Clemson protection hasn’t proven the indicators of whole dominance that had been hallmarks of this system. This newfound shortcoming on protection for Clemson will likely be a key to the guess, and the tape is there to review after the Tigers gave up 45 factors to Wake Forest final week.
Clemson completed the final six seasons within the prime 20 in scoring protection however at present ranks 53rd, giving up 21.8 factors per recreation this season.
The turnaround at quarterback for Clemson speaks volumes in regards to the enhancements Uiagalelei has made and the religion that head coach Dabo Swinney has in him. The downtick in protection up to now this season creates a betting edge that favors overs and opposing workforce totals.
Take the plus-money providing and search for this ticket to be within the cash halfway by the third quarter.